Pro Forma Income Statements and Balance Sheets

QUESTION

Great Lakes Industrial Supply, Inc.
Chuck Kolias, Chief Financial Officer of Great Lakes Industrial Supply, Inc. was preparing for a
meeting with his company’s bank later in the week. At that meeting, Mr. Kolias intended to
present a request that the bank grant Great Lakes Industrial Supply a five-year loan to finance
anticipated growth in the company and the expansion of the company’s warehouse facilities.
In preparation for his meeting, Mr. Kolias had gathered some recent financial statements for
Great Lakes. (see Excel template and Exhibit 1).
Company Background
Great Lakes Industrial Supply, Inc (Great Lakes) was a rapidly growing distributor of industrial
hoses, fittings and related supplies in the upper mid-west United States. Supplies were sold to
industrial clients through a chain of 12 outlets located throughout Ohio, Pennsylvania Michigan,
and Illinois. These outlets kept sufficient inventory on hand to service immediate customer
demand, but the bulk of Great Lakes’ inventory was managed at a central warehouse outside
Cleveland, Ohio. Individual stores could be easily serviced by this warehouse, which could
usually fill orders from individual outlets within 24 hours.
For the year ended December, 2022, Great Lakes had sales of $23,505,000. Net income for that
period was $1,190,000. During the previous three years, sales had grown at a compound annual
rate in excess of 20%. This record was a reflection of Great Lakes’ reputation for excellent
service and competitive pricing, which yielded high levels of customer satisfaction.
Past Relationship with SkyBank
In 2019, Great Lakes had borrowed funds from SkyBank to build a warehouse. This loan was
being repaid in equal annual installments of $125,000. At the end of 2022, the balance due on the
loan was $875,000. Also, in 2018, Great Lakes established a line of credit at SkyBank. The
company had not yet borrowed any money under this credit arrangement.
The Current Financial Need
Great Lakes had decided to expand its warehouse facilities to accommodate future growth.
Indeed, the current warehouse facilities were practically bulging at the seams. During the next 18
months, Great Lakes planned to invest $2,400,000 on its expansion, $2,000,000 of which would
be spent during 2023 (no other capital expenditures were planned for 2023 and 2024). This
expansion would fulfill the company’s anticipated needs for several years. The warehouse
construction project was expected to be completed in early 2024. Therefore, Great Lakes would
not be able to deduct any depreciation on the new building in 2023. However, Mr. Kolias was
told by his accountant that in 2024, Great Lakes could recognize a depreciation expense of 5% of
the warehouse’s total cost. The dollar value of Great Lakes’ depreciation expense on its other
assets in 2023 and 2024 would be the same as it was in 2022.
The warehouse expansion project was designed so that disruption of the company’s current
operations would be minimized. However, management expected that by the end of 2023, Great
Lakes would temporarily have to decrease its inventories to a level of $1,625,000, significantly
lower than the $2,190,000 shown on the balance sheet at the end of 2022. This cutback in
inventories was expected to last only until the warehouse construction project was completed in
early 2024. Mr. Kolias had estimated that, by the end of 2024, inventory would rise back to the
proportional relationship to sales that it had in 2022.
Other than this temporary drop in inventory in 2023, the warehouse expansion was not expected
to affect Great Lakes’ operations in any other material respects. Operating margins were
expected to be consistent with recent past experience (the temporary drop in inventory would not
affect cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales, for example). Likewise, current accounts other
than inventory were expected to maintain steady relationships to sales. Cash balances, for
instance, would be maintained at a level of 3% of sales during the next two years. Although the
Federal statutory marginal corporate tax rate was 35%, the average tax rate on Great Lakes’ pre-
tax income had typically been higher than this due to miscellaneous local taxes. The higher
overall level of taxation was expected to continue in the future at rates consistent with the most
recent past experience. In view of this anticipated stability, Mr. Kolias expected Great Lakes’
dividend payout policy to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future.
Great Lakes had preliminary discussions with SkyBank about borrowing money to finance the
warehouse expansion and the growth of the business. The proposed terms of the financing called
for taking down (i.e., borrowing) the loan in two separate parts on an as-needed basis: one in
2023 and one in 2024. The loan would be repaid in four equal annual installments. The first
installment payment would take place one year after the construction of the warehouse was
completed (i.e., in 2025). The interest rate was set at 10% per year.
Mr. Kolias’ Task
In preparation for his meeting, Mr. Kolias intended to develop a set of pro forma financial
statements for the company. He and his staff had projected a 20% increase in sales each year in
2023 and 2024 from $23,505,000 to $28,206,000 and $33, 847,000, respectively. Mr. Kolias’
first priority was to predict what the rest of the income statement and the balance sheet for the
firm would look like at the end of 2023 and 2024

 

Assignment:
1 Based on Mr. Kolias’ prediction of 20% sales growth in 2023 and 2024 and relying on other assumptions provided in the Great Lakes case, prepare complete pro forma forecast of Great Lakes’ 2023 and 2024 income statements and year-end balance sheets. Assume that any new financing, if needed, will be in the form of bank debt. Assume that all debt (any exisitng or new debt) carries an interest rate of 10%.
2 How much does Great Lakes have to borrow in 2023? How much in 2024?
3 Assess the financial health of Great Lakes Indusrial Supply, Inc. in past and forecasted periods. Specifically, calculate the financial ratios defined in the worksheet financial ratios and interpret the results.
Will Great Lakes Industrial Supply be in a stronger or weaker financial condition two years from now?
4 Suppose that the proposed terms of the bank credit included a covenant (a contractual obligation that binds the borrower to specific actions or outcomes as a condition for extending a loan) that read as follows: “The company must maintain net working capital (defined for purposes of this loan as accounts receivable plus inventories minus accounts payable) of at least $4 million. For purposes of this covenant, net working capital will be measured at the end of each fiscal year.” Is Great Lakes likely to be able to satisfy this covenant in both 2023 and 2024?
5 What would be the impact on Great Lakes’ external funding needs and interest coverage (calculated as EBIT / Interest expense) as of the end of 2023 and 2024 if:
a. Inventory were not reduced by the end of 2023?
b. Great Lakes experienced higher growth in its revenues than was originally anticipated in 2023 and 2024?
c. Days receivables were reduced to 45 days?
d. Accrued Expenses were to grow less than expected in 2023 and 2024?
6 As a lender, would you be willing to loan Great Lakes Indusrial Supply, Inc. the funds needed to expand it warehouse facilities and finance its growth? Why or why not?

 

ANSWER

Pro Forma Income Statements and Balance Sheets

Here are the pro forma income statements and year-end balance sheets for Great Lakes Industrial Supply, Inc. for the years 2023 and 2024, based on the assumptions provided:

Pro Forma Income Statements

2023:

Sales: $28,206,000 (20% increase from 2022)

Cost of Goods Sold: $17,713,750 (Assuming consistent COGS as a percentage of sales)

Gross Profit: $10,492,250

Operating Expenses: $7,491,000 (Estimated based on historical relationships)

Depreciation Expense: $nil (No depreciation on the new warehouse in 2023)

Interest Expense: $nil (No new debt in 2023)

Pre-Tax Income: $2,001,250

Taxes (Effective Rate): $700,437.50 (Average tax rate)

Net Income: $1,300,812.50

2024:

Sales: $33,847,000 (20% increase from 2023)

Cost of Goods Sold: $21,266,875 (Assuming consistent COGS as a percentage of sales)

Gross Profit: $12,580,125

Operating Expenses: $8,991,000 (Estimated based on historical relationships)

Depreciation Expense: $120,000 (5% of the new warehouse cost)

Interest Expense: $192,000 (10% interest on new debt in 2023 and 2024)

Pre-Tax Income: $3,377,125

Taxes (Effective Rate): $1,182,494.38 (Average tax rate)

Net Income: $2,194,630.63

Year-End Balance Sheets

2023:

Cash: $846,180 (3% of 2023 sales)

Accounts Receivable: $4,014,150 (Assuming no change in days receivables)

Inventory: $1,625,000 (Temporary reduction due to warehouse expansion)

Total Current Assets: $6,485,330

Property, Plant, and Equipment: $11,200,000 (Net of 2023 additions)

Total Assets: $17,685,330

Accounts Payable: $2,213,250 (Assuming no change in days payable)

Short-Term Debt: $0 (No new debt in 2023)

Total Current Liabilities: $2,213,250

Long-Term Debt: $0

Total Liabilities: $2,213,250

Shareholders’ Equity: $15,472,080

2024:

Cash: $1,015,410 (3% of 2024 sales)

Accounts Receivable: $4,810,080 (Assuming no change in days receivables)

Inventory: $2,190,000 (Recovery to 2022 levels after expansion)

Total Current Assets: $8,015,490

Property, Plant, and Equipment: $11,320,000 (Net of 2024 additions and depreciation)

Total Assets: $19,335,490

Accounts Payable: $2,413,750 (Assuming no change in days payable)

Short-Term Debt: $0

Total Current Liabilities: $2,413,750

Long-Term Debt: $1,800,000 (New debt in 2023)

Total Liabilities: $4,213,750

Shareholders’ Equity: $15,121,740

 Borrowing Needs

In 2023, Great Lakes needs to borrow $2,000,000 to finance the warehouse expansion. In 2024, they need to borrow an additional $1,800,000 to complete the financing for the expansion.

Financial Health Assessment

To assess the financial health of Great Lakes, let’s calculate some key financial ratios using the provided data and the pro forma financial statements:

Current Ratio (2023): 6.485,330 / 2,213,250 = 2.93

Current Ratio (2024): 8,015,490 / 2,413,750 = 3.32

Debt-to-Equity Ratio (2023): 0 / 15,472,080 = 0

Debt-to-Equity Ratio (2024): 1,800,000 / 15,121,740 = 0.12

Net Working Capital (2023): $4,271,080

Net Working Capital (2024): $5,601,740

Great Lakes is in a strong financial position in both 2023 and 2024, with increasing current ratios and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio. Their net working capital also comfortably exceeds the proposed covenant requirement of $4 million.

Covenant Compliance

Great Lakes is likely to satisfy the covenant requiring a net working capital of at least $4 million in both 2023 and 2024 as calculated above.

Impact on Funding Needs and Interest Coverage

If inventory were not reduced by the end of 2023, Great Lakes would require less external funding in 2023 but might need more in 2024 due to the increased working capital requirement.

If Great Lakes experienced higher growth in revenues, they might need additional external funding to support the increased working capital and expansion costs.

Ifdays receivables were reduced to 45 days, Great Lakes might need less external funding due to quicker cash conversion.

If accrued expenses grew less than expected, it could reduce the need for external funding.

Lending Decision

As a lender, I would be inclined to loan Great Lakes the funds needed for their warehouse expansion and growth. The company’s strong financial position, conservative debt levels, and healthy cash flow generation make it a favorable candidate for financing. Additionally, the provided collateral in the form of property, plant, and equipment further reduces the lending risk. However, a thorough credit analysis, including an assessment of the proposed covenant compliance, would be necessary to finalize the lending decision.

 

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